创业板指大涨2%背后:存储芯片与稀土板块领涨,政策面暖风频吹

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📊 本文涉及标的速览

5月11日凌晨,A股市场在隔夜外围扰动中走出独立行情。创业板指单日涨幅超过2%,沪指上涨0.74%至近期高点,深成指同步走强升1.62%。沪深京三市共有超过2600只个股收涨,存储芯片、光纤、稀土及房地产等多个板块轮动表现,资金做多意愿显著回升。


一、政策暖风持续加码,成长股估值修复加速

近期,多项产业政策密集落地,成为本轮A股反弹的核心驱动力。在半导体领域,国家集成电路产业投资基金(大基金)第三期的募资进展及投向规划持续牵动市场神经。据财联社此前报道,大基金三期将加大对先进制程及高带宽存储(HBM)等关键领域的投资力度,引导社会资本向半导体产业链薄弱环节聚集。存储芯片板块今日领涨,正是对这一政策预期的直接定价。

稀土板块的走强同样与政策信号密切相关。商务部近期持续推进稀土出口管制相关政策研究,市场对稀土战略性资源属性的认知再度强化。在新能源产业链下游需求边际改善的背景下,上游稀土资源的定价权回归预期推动板块估值中枢上移。

房地产板块的反弹则延续了"政策底"后的修复逻辑。多地限购松绑、房贷利率下调以及城中村改造专项借款落地等举措逐步兑现,行业流动性压力有所缓解,龙头企业股价在低估值区间获得资金阶段性配置。


二、市场结构性分化:AI硬件端强势,消费电子承压

从今日盘面来看,市场主线围绕AI基础设施端展开。AMD股价隔夜大涨11.44%,与其数据中心业务营收超预期直接相关,但更核心的逻辑在于市场对GPU及AI芯片竞争格局变化的定价——英伟达同日上涨1.75%,显示算力赛道整体仍受资金青睐。

相比之下,消费电子龙头承压明显。微软(MSFT)下跌1.34%,Meta(META)下跌1.16%,两者均在近期财报后经历了估值消化过程。苹果(AAPL)上涨2.05%,但更多是技术性反弹而非基本面驱动。这一分化反映出当前市场资金更偏好"卖铲子"型基础设施公司,而非应用层标的。

加密资产方面,Solana(SOL)上涨2.73%$95.57,以太坊(ETH)上涨1.04%$2350.03,DOGE上涨1.46%,整体呈温和反弹格局,与A股科技板块形成一定联动,但风险资产属性使其弹性明显强于传统股票。


三、历史对照:政策驱动型反弹的持续性考验

回顾近两年A股市场的政策驱动型反弹,可以发现几个规律性特征:

2024年9月降准降息周期:政策出台后,沪指在两周内累计上涨约15%,但随后因基本面数据未能同步改善而进入高位震荡。本轮反弹在政策密度上与之相近,但宏观环境的差异在于当前CPI及PPI数据仍处于磨底阶段。

2025年一季度AI产业政策密集期:彼时存储芯片板块曾在两周内涨幅超过30%,随后因获利回吐出现明显分化。本轮存储芯片的涨幅节奏与历史相似,但估值起点更低,市场情绪更为克制。

对于当前创业板反弹的持续性,关键观察指标包括:其一,北向资金单日净流入规模能否突破百亿元;其二,两市成交额能否从当前水平放量至1.2万亿以上;其三,上市公司一季报中半导体设备及材料板块的订单增速是否验证政策传导效果。


四、后续观察:政策节奏与业绩验证双轨并行

站在当前节点,市场正处于"政策预期定价"向"业绩兑现定价"的过渡阶段。AI算力产业链的订单可见度较高,但消费电子、汽车等中游制造的复苏节奏仍有不确定性。

从外围扰动因素来看,美国10年期国债收益率的波动、美元指数的阶段性走强均可能对人民币资产形成压力。今日SPY(标普500ETF)上涨0.85%,显示美股整体维持相对强势,外盘环境对A股的扰动暂时有限。

后续一周,需要重点关注的信号包括:国内最新PMI数据、新能源汽车销量数据、以及大基金三期的具体投向公告。若政策面持续释放暖意,且产业数据边际改善,则创业板指本轮反弹有望延续至2000点整数关口;反之,若政策真空期出现叠加业绩证伪压力,则指数在高位将面临较强抛压。

整体而言,今日A股市场在政策预期支撑下展现出相对韧性,成长板块与周期板块的轮动格局为短线资金提供了结构机会,但中线走势仍需宏观面与基本面共振确认。

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Hacker News $AMD
I'd expect unified memory architectures (Apple M-series, AMD Ryzen AI series, etc) to be the future of local inference, not GPU cards.
StockTwits $AMD · 1033 粉丝
$AMD $INTC $RXT if you see my few of DD way early and returns it had provided. Stop listening to fools who don’t have any idea transformative deal with $AMD and $PLTR means for RXT which already turned profitable last qtr with 2.7b$ ARR and with new deal can reach 20b$ in next 5 yrs. PT 40$ is reasonable
@Realtrader77 · 查看原文
Hacker News $AMD
You can bootstrap from your custom ISO with some embedded starter key, upload ISO, loads into RAM and opens SSH, connect and run a playbook to encrypt the root drive where you deploy your OS with your SSH key. If you went with encrypted root, you might need to enter pass via console, or dropbear server in a pre-boot env you connect to via SSH to enter the key if you dont trust …
Hacker News $NVDA
Honestly surprised to hear that GPT OSS 20B runs slow on mac hardware. It's absolutely one of the fastest models I've run on local GPUs for its size, but only tried Nvidia cards. Edit: TIL it is MoE and only has 3.6B active, explains a lot.
StockTwits $NVDA · 1050 粉丝
$MU $AMD $INTC $NVDA deepseek?
@KABStockOptionCommunity · 查看原文
Hacker News $NVDA
I hate the AI writing but this is probably right. - There are a number of competitors for hardware, from Microsoft, Meta, Google, and Amazon. Those are mostly serving internal needs today, but Amazon and Google tend to productize their internal products. Other players are also selling chips - the author mentions Broadcom. - Both Google and Apple are doing their best to shift in…
Hacker News $AAPL
still chugging on Whenish https://apps.apple.com/us/app/whenish/id6745035749! outside of that I started to fiddle around with a cross section of observability and analytics with SDKs...building a little tool to give SDK publishers better insights.
StockTwits $AAPL · 1079 粉丝
$SPY $QQQ $NVDA $AAPL seems like puts at open. Specific to be disclosed tomorrow
@ivandsouza75 · 查看原文
Hacker News $AAPL
Interesting to see this after the recent post about Chrome’s on-device model using up 4gb of storage, which frustrated a lot of people [1]. I agree local models are great, and it’s cool that Apple has models built in now. But I feel like it basically has to be an OS level feature or users are going to get upset. I’d certainly rather have a small utility call out to OpenAI than …
Hacker News $TSLA
How long until they turn a constellation into a giant LED billboard, showing commercials for Tesla?
StockTwits $TSLA · 1046 粉丝
$MSFT $META buy any shit and you can money $AAPL $NVDA $TSLA sucks now 😂😂😂
@Billionaire2025 · 查看原文
Hacker News $TSLA
It confuses people. The same way calling what Tesla does full self driving. What people envision as "full self driving" or "artificial intelligence", and what they actually get are not the same thing. When I hear artificial intelligence, I picture Data from Star Trek, not a hopped up Eliza.

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